¿Cómo saber cuándo Bitcoin está listo para despegar?


In the eyes of Mati Greenspan, a trader from birth, crypto is about financial literacy. It’s about putting the power of money back into the hands of the people. The more people familiar with basic financial concepts, the better off we’re all going to be, he says.

Greenspan ha comercializado oro, plata y cobre en papel desde los 12 y 13 años. A lo largo de los años, el mayor ajuste que ha tenido que hacer ha sido el salto del comercio de papel en el periódico al comercio en línea. 

“The internet is the real revolution here,” he told me. “After that, online brokers paved the way for everything that we’re seeing in the crypto space.” The best tools are charts and social media, he says. 

“It’s really about how you get your news, and how you get information,” he said. “Social media has helped, because the financial markets are traditionally a very closed door industry. People speak about Wall Street in the 70s and 80s as a pack of wolves. All of the traders run together as a pack. And then, if there’s some poor schlub who comes in with his $10,000, they eat him alive.”

Internet le devuelve a la gente algo de ese poder. “Incluso alguien que sea un novato absoluto en los mercados financieros puede ingresar, unirse a un grupo o incluso copiar a alguien con una actividad de comerciante de copias, y hacerlo bastante bien en los mercados. Incluso sin conocimiento previo, pueden entrar y, en varias horas, aprender lo suficiente como para tener una oportunidad en el mercado ”. 

Greenspan pasa mucho tiempo en Twitter y en LinkedIn podando sus feeds, asegurando que obtenga la información relevante. Sigue a las personas cuya opinión respeta sobre los mercados.

He cites Twitter and Reddit as two platforms where one can customize the amount of information they receive. “A lot of people, who don’t spend the time get put off quite quickly, because they get a lot of garbage in their feed,” said Greenspan. “But, if you go through and see who you are following on Twitter, or which subjects you’re following on Reddit, you’re actually going to get a lot of very useful information.” 

La información útil incluye cualquier cosa, desde diferentes tipos de análisis hasta inmersiones profundas sobre noticias o aspectos técnicos. Apoya su uso de las redes sociales con los motores de búsqueda. Utiliza Twitter como una herramienta de escucha, monitoreando las conversaciones digitales para comprender lo que la gente dice sobre un activo en particular. 

“I would see who was into the financial markets and had a large following. Those were the people that I would start following immediately,” he said. “I would also see people on TV, for example, or people who are in the news, and think, ‘Okay, I want to know what this person has to say’. So, I go look them up and see which social accounts they’re active on. I still do that to this day. If I see an analyst or even a world leader, who I want to be in touch with, I’ll go ahead and look them up on social media.” 

In part, that’s why social media is so helpful when studying cryptocurrencies. “If people think that it’s a bit overvalued at the moment, or if people think that it’s going to go down, then you might want to reduce the amount that you’re investing. Whereas, if people are very bullish, and they think that it’s going to go up, that’s when you can increase your exposure.”

Al mismo tiempo, cuando se usan las redes sociales para el análisis, es importante ser cauteloso. 

"No quieres depender demasiado de las redes sociales", dijo Greenspan. "Hay muchos jugadores nefastos que tienden a saber cómo manipular las redes sociales". 

He uses the tools and charts of trading differently, depending on if he is trading long-term or short-term. “If I’m thinking about a specific company’s stock that I want to invest in, for example, I’m going to use long term analysis, because that’s not a trade that I want to jump in and jump out of. I want to say, ‘Okay, this company has room to grow, it has potential.’ I’m going to use it as a long term investment. If I’m trading more short term, then I’m going to be looking at breaking news, for example, to see how it’s going to impact the market.” 

When looking at the news for trading signals, you’ll want to see the news, look at how markets react, and then make your move. “In the crypto market, that is a bit less relevant, because crypto doesn’t react to the news as much as traditional markets,” said Greenspan. “Traditional markets, for example, have regular news events.” He cites the U.S. jobs report in the United States as one. 

“It’s huge.” 

It happens on the first Friday of every month at 8:30am Eastern Time. “And, when it happens, everybody knows it’s going to happen,” said Greenspan. “Everybody’s in front of their computers waiting for the results. As soon as the results are published, everybody’s trading immediately.”

That leads to a lot of volatility. “You can see huge movements in the market,” said Greenspan. Crypto doesn’t really have news announcements for which everybody’s waiting-no con demasiada frecuencia, al menos.

“Momentum is going to be a much more powerful way for you to trade crypto, simply because you can tell when something is moving, when it’s moving fast, and in which direction it’s going. If you can gauge the direction and speed of the markets by looking at the charts or other platforms or looking at social media sentiment, that’s going to be the best way to trade in the crypto markets, especially high risk crypto currencies on a short term basis.”

Google Trends is one of Greenspan’s favorite analysis tools. “It shows the fundamentals of the market, and how many people around the world are thinking about it at any given moment. The more people who are thinking about it, the better off it is. Cryptocurrencies by nature are networks. Even Dogecoin. It may be a joke, but it’s a network at the end of the day, and it’s the people that contribute to the network that help it.”

Greenspan suggests studying one hour charts, for example, in which each candlestick represents one hour. “This gives you an idea of the performance over the last 24 hours of a specific coin that you’re trading on this overall market. That’s a great way to gauge momentum.” Greenspan notes Coin360.io for its clear week, day, and hour charts.

“If things are green over the last hour, two hours, and three hours, it is very likely that they’ll continue to go that direction, at least until you see them slowing down or starting to reverse,” said Greenspan, who is the founder of QuantumEconomics.io. “That’s even just looking at the numbers and being exposed to it, you’re going to get more and more experienced with it.”

During 2017, as the Bitcoin price increased to an all-time high of nearly $20,000, Greenspan thought the party might be over when he saw a very large, sudden drop on the chart. It was time to start taking profits.“That was a good indication it’s time to take some of that risk off the table,” said Greenspan. He held a webinar in December 2017 about how to take profits and redistribute them into other markets. Greenspan began buying stocks and commodities to get away from crypto. 

“You’ll see [the signals] first in the momentum once things start to turn red,” said Greenspan. “Second of all, you’ll see it in the sentiment on social media.” 

Mirando hacia atrás, Greenspan recuerda cómo la red de Bitcoin se había congestionado. Demasiadas transacciones habían llevado a largos tiempos de confirmación. "Bitcoin estaba repleto de actividad, y en ese momento sentí que podría ser una buena idea reducir la exposición". Se vendió Bitcoin a $ 10,000 por moneda. En aproximadamente dos semanas, subió a casi $ 20,000. Durante ese tiempo, Greenspan sintió algo de "miedo a perderse" o "FOMO" para abreviar.

"En retrospectiva, vender era lo correcto, porque 2018 no fue un gran año para el precio", reflexiona.

¿Qué está viendo Greenspan hoy? 

“All over the social media analysis and social media analysis websites, you can see the halving event is quite prevalent on people’s minds,” he said, referring to the reduction of Bitcoin’s block reward, which transpires about every four years. “Anybody writing an article about Bitcoin price is very likely talking about the halving as being a main driver.”  

A medida que el gobierno de los Estados Unidos anuncia planes para un rescate de $ 6,000,000,000,000, el evento de reducción a la mitad se vuelve aún más significativo. "El evento de reducción a la mitad es un claro recordatorio del concepto de escasez digital en el que se creó Bitcoin", dijo Greenspan. “Puede tener algo que sea digital y que también tenga un suministro estrictamente limitado. El evento de reducción a la mitad es básicamente un gran recordatorio, especialmente cuando todos hablan de todo a la vez ". 

 ¿Cómo va a afectar el precio a largo plazo?

 “As far as the network is concerned, you’ve got to factor in what the miners are doing, what the full nodes are doing, what the ‘hodlers’ are doing, and what the exchanges are doing. What we can see at the moment is that the halving is one of the driving factors of the market.”

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